11.25.24
The Real danger of a Trump presidency – that he will achieve results
Most people that define themselves as “progressives” or “left leaning” are appalled at the election of Donald J. Trump for a second term. I am one of them. There is no end to the catastrophic predictions regarding what Trump policies will do to the American economy, Climate Action, inclusion, diversity and equity initiatives, the environment, and the effectiveness of the Federal government. A guest essay in the NYT by David Nasaw on November 11 was particularly vitriolic regarding the relationship between Trump and Elon Musk. I’m sorry but we have to tone things down. Inflammatory and clearly vindictive rhetoric is not what is needed at this time. Instead, a rational approach to what will be in many ways an irrational administration is the only hope for people like me and for the Democratic party.
Let’s think about some of the major policy initiatives that Trump has put forward. How likely are they to be actually put in place and what will be the impact? I believe that some of these policies will be extremely positive and that is the real danger of a Trump presidency – demonstrating to the American people that an autocratic bully can actually get things done.
One of his most audacious claims is that he can end the war in Ukraine. In my opinion that is quite possible. The U.S. has the biggest levers by far in this conflict and if they are used the war will end. It will not end as most of us want but it will end.
Putin is a monster but infortunately his grip on power does not seem to be at risk. He will never end the war unless he gets permanent territorial gains. And if he continues to transform the Russian economy into a war machine he can keep it going for many years.
Trump can end the war quickly by being the bully that he is and threatening both sides. He can demand that Ukraine negotiate new borders in the Donbas that cede some territory to Russia. If Zelensky balks Trump will threaten to stop providing arms to Ukraine.
Simultaneously he will demand that Putin agree to negotiating these new borders or else Trump will escalate the use of long-range missiles against Russian cities including Moscow. This is no doubt a dangerous path but when two school yard bullies confront each other the one with the bigger biceps wins. The U.S. has pretty big biceps.
Many will see this as capitulation and will rail against allowing Russia to benefit from its illegal invasion. Sorry folks, but that train left the station in 2014 when Putin annexed Crimea and nobody blinked an eye.
With regards to putting large tariffs on imported goods I doubt this will end up being the kind of across-the-board measure Trump has been talking about. I believe it will start with changes to tariffs on Chinese imports, particularly automobiles. There is precedent for both restrictions on foreign automakers and the positive consequences for American manufacturing jobs. The Voluntary Export Restraint program negotiated with Japan in 1981 limited the number of Japanese made vehicles that could be imported into the U.S. This produced results in short order with Honda, Nissan, Toyota, Mazda, and Mitsubishi building plants in the U.S. – all non-union and located mostly in the South where “right to work” laws are common. Threatening increased Tariffs on manufacturers such as BYD will likely encourage a similar result. And locating manufacturing facilities closer to the target market will also reduce transportation costs and the associated carbon footprint.
What about the mass deportation of undocumented immigrants, most of whom are Mexican? This will be very disruptive and will be accompanied by many, many heart-breaking stories about family break-ups and honest, hard-working and respected members of communities being banished. At the same time much tighter regulations regarding asylum at the Southern border will reduce the influx of any additional undocumented immigrants.
The major impact of these policies will be to re-establish the legal framework that should have always been in place if we are being honest with ourselves. There are legal processes that support immigration into the U.S. as there are in every country. If you do not follow the legal process, you will be deported. The fact that the U.S. has a long border with Mexico which allows physical entry into the country to circumvent the legal process should never have been allowed to compromise the rule of law.
Latinos supported Trump in large numbers in 2024. There are probably numerous reasons for that, but one factor could well be that the millions of immigrants from Mexico and other Central and South American countries that followed the legal process may not be that supportive of undocumented migrants.
It is hard to predict all of the consequences of these policies but there are possibly some positives that could emerge. Congress could finally introduce significant reforms to immigration and asylum laws which would provide a better path for undocumented migrants to achieve U.S. citizenship. Adding asylum processing officers and clarifying the criteria for approving entry into the U.S. could drastically reduce the time for processing people crossing the Southern border. Rapid and fairly adjudicated review of asylum claims could eliminate the “catch and release” practice that exists today. Faced with the certainly that only legitimate claims for asylum will be successful and that these claims will be handled quickly might actually dissuade many from even making the often treacherous journey to the Southern border.
Finally, the real possibility that Elon Musk will be put in charge of a new efficiency secretariat could have a drastic impact on the Federal civil service. He is notorious for regularly “cleaning house” through mass layoffs at his companies and as brutal an approach as that may seem it has been quite successful. He laid off 75% of the software engineers at Twitter and yet the platform (now known as “X”) has survived and is innovating faster than ever. In a shocking move in May 2024 Musk fired the entire Super-Charger team at Tesla, some 500 workers. The widespread criticism at the time was that this move would bring Super-Charger installations to a halt. While installations have slowed and are about 11% below 2023 completions the system continues to expand and is adjusting to meet changing demands as other auto makers have signed on to use the Tesla charging standard. Hardly a disaster.
If the role for Musk actually comes to fruition it should be expected that there will be massive layoffs throughout the Federal civil service. More disruption for sure, but probably not a bad thing given that most Americans feel the bureaucracy is a bloated and often intransient impediment to actually getting anything done. One need not look farther than to compare the California High Speed Rail to Florida’s privately funded Brightline for proof. NASA’s massive spending on the Space Launch System compared to the SpaceX Starship program provides another instructive example.
There will no doubt be many, many very negative consequences of a Trump presidency. Action on Climate change will probably be greatly reduced. The divides in American society will not be healed and the gap between the 1% of wealthy Americans and everyone else will probably grow wider. Most dangerously, the example of a person of Trump’s character once again occupying the Oval Office is truly disturbing.
Trump has been compared to the European dictators of the 1930’s. Personally, I believe these comparisons are not appropriate. I have not detected any inclination towards global or even regional domination in Trump’s actions nor do I believe he would condone military aggression. His world is centered primarily around the well being of Donald J. Trump and secondarily about how great a self-absorbed and isolationist America can be.
But there is one striking parallel between 21st Century U.S.A. and some of the countries that embraced fascism: the failure of democratically elected governments to actually accomplish things for their people. There is a perception, probably not entirely accurate, that the American government is not capable of decisive action. It is undeniable that building consensus and addressing real and important issues can take time. That can be frustrating.
A “strong man”, as Trump sees himself and wants others to see him does not have to be concerned with such “niceties”.
The sad fact of the matter is this. Trump may get some good things accomplished. And that is the real danger of a Trump presidency.
@enrgy_manifesto
