Most people that define themselves as “progressives” or “left leaning” are appalled at the election of Donald J. Trump for a second term. I am one of them. There is no end to the catastrophic predictions regarding what Trump policies will do to the American economy, Climate Action, inclusion, diversity and equity initiatives, the environment, and the effectiveness of the Federal government. A guest essay in the NYT by David Nasaw on November 11 was particularly vitriolic regarding the relationship between Trump and Elon Musk. I’m sorry but we have to tone things down. Inflammatory and clearly vindictive rhetoric is not what is needed at this time. Instead, a rational approach to what will be in many ways an irrational administration is the only hope for people like me and for the Democratic party.
Let’s think about some of the major policy initiatives that Trump has put forward. How likely are they to be actually put in place and what will be the impact? I believe that some of these policies will be extremely positive and that is the real danger of a Trump presidency – demonstrating to the American people that an autocratic bully can actually get things done.
One of his most audacious claims is that he can end the war in Ukraine. In my opinion that is quite possible. The U.S. has the biggest levers by far in this conflict and if they are used the war will end. It will not end as most of us want but it will end.
Putin is a monster but infortunately his grip on power does not seem to be at risk. He will never end the war unless he gets permanent territorial gains. And if he continues to transform the Russian economy into a war machine he can keep it going for many years.
Trump can end the war quickly by being the bully that he is and threatening both sides. He can demand that Ukraine negotiate new borders in the Donbas that cede some territory to Russia. If Zelensky balks Trump will threaten to stop providing arms to Ukraine.
Simultaneously he will demand that Putin agree to negotiating these new borders or else Trump will escalate the use of long-range missiles against Russian cities including Moscow. This is no doubt a dangerous path but when two school yard bullies confront each other the one with the bigger biceps wins. The U.S. has pretty big biceps.
Many will see this as capitulation and will rail against allowing Russia to benefit from its illegal invasion. Sorry folks, but that train left the station in 2014 when Putin annexed Crimea and nobody blinked an eye.
With regards to putting large tariffs on imported goods I doubt this will end up being the kind of across-the-board measure Trump has been talking about. I believe it will start with changes to tariffs on Chinese imports, particularly automobiles. There is precedent for both restrictions on foreign automakers and the positive consequences for American manufacturing jobs. The Voluntary Export Restraint program negotiated with Japan in 1981 limited the number of Japanese made vehicles that could be imported into the U.S. This produced results in short order with Honda, Nissan, Toyota, Mazda, and Mitsubishi building plants in the U.S. – all non-union and located mostly in the South where “right to work” laws are common. Threatening increased Tariffs on manufacturers such as BYD will likely encourage a similar result. And locating manufacturing facilities closer to the target market will also reduce transportation costs and the associated carbon footprint.
What about the mass deportation of undocumented immigrants, most of whom are Mexican? This will be very disruptive and will be accompanied by many, many heart-breaking stories about family break-ups and honest, hard-working and respected members of communities being banished. At the same time much tighter regulations regarding asylum at the Southern border will reduce the influx of any additional undocumented immigrants.
The major impact of these policies will be to re-establish the legal framework that should have always been in place if we are being honest with ourselves. There are legal processes that support immigration into the U.S. as there are in every country. If you do not follow the legal process, you will be deported. The fact that the U.S. has a long border with Mexico which allows physical entry into the country to circumvent the legal process should never have been allowed to compromise the rule of law.
Latinos supported Trump in large numbers in 2024. There are probably numerous reasons for that, but one factor could well be that the millions of immigrants from Mexico and other Central and South American countries that followed the legal process may not be that supportive of undocumented migrants.
It is hard to predict all of the consequences of these policies but there are possibly some positives that could emerge. Congress could finally introduce significant reforms to immigration and asylum laws which would provide a better path for undocumented migrants to achieve U.S. citizenship. Adding asylum processing officers and clarifying the criteria for approving entry into the U.S. could drastically reduce the time for processing people crossing the Southern border. Rapid and fairly adjudicated review of asylum claims could eliminate the “catch and release” practice that exists today. Faced with the certainly that only legitimate claims for asylum will be successful and that these claims will be handled quickly might actually dissuade many from even making the often treacherous journey to the Southern border.
Finally, the real possibility that Elon Musk will be put in charge of a new efficiency secretariat could have a drastic impact on the Federal civil service. He is notorious for regularly “cleaning house” through mass layoffs at his companies and as brutal an approach as that may seem it has been quite successful. He laid off 75% of the software engineers at Twitter and yet the platform (now known as “X”) has survived and is innovating faster than ever. In a shocking move in May 2024 Musk fired the entire Super-Charger team at Tesla, some 500 workers. The widespread criticism at the time was that this move would bring Super-Charger installations to a halt. While installations have slowed and are about 11% below 2023 completions the system continues to expand and is adjusting to meet changing demands as other auto makers have signed on to use the Tesla charging standard. Hardly a disaster.
If the role for Musk actually comes to fruition it should be expected that there will be massive layoffs throughout the Federal civil service. More disruption for sure, but probably not a bad thing given that most Americans feel the bureaucracy is a bloated and often intransient impediment to actually getting anything done. One need not look farther than to compare the California High Speed Rail to Florida’s privately funded Brightline for proof. NASA’s massive spending on the Space Launch System compared to the SpaceX Starship program provides another instructive example.
There will no doubt be many, many very negative consequences of a Trump presidency. Action on Climate change will probably be greatly reduced. The divides in American society will not be healed and the gap between the 1% of wealthy Americans and everyone else will probably grow wider. Most dangerously, the example of a person of Trump’s character once again occupying the Oval Office is truly disturbing.
Trump has been compared to the European dictators of the 1930’s. Personally, I believe these comparisons are not appropriate. I have not detected any inclination towards global or even regional domination in Trump’s actions nor do I believe he would condone military aggression. His world is centered primarily around the well being of Donald J. Trump and secondarily about how great a self-absorbed and isolationist America can be.
But there is one striking parallel between 21st Century U.S.A. and some of the countries that embraced fascism: the failure of democratically elected governments to actually accomplish things for their people. There is a perception, probably not entirely accurate, that the American government is not capable of decisive action. It is undeniable that building consensus and addressing real and important issues can take time. That can be frustrating.
A “strong man”, as Trump sees himself and wants others to see him does not have to be concerned with such “niceties”.
The sad fact of the matter is this. Trump may get some good things accomplished. And that is the real danger of a Trump presidency.
Let me start by saying that this is an opinion piece. I am not going to provide a bibliography of external references supporting my assertions. I have been politically active my entire adult life and am a publicly acknowledged “leftie”. I have supported the New Democratic Party in every election I have cast a ballot in, including two where I myself was the candidate. And yes, that means I am a Canadian and perhaps I have no business commenting on American politics. But what happens in the U.S. impacts Canada more than almost any other country so I will claim the right to expressing my views regardless.
Many progressive people that I know personally and many public figures that I follow have expressed shock that Donald J. Trump will be the 47th President of the United States. I was quite convinced from the time that Joe Biden announced that he would run for a second term that this result was inevitable. Here are my thoughts on the matter for what they are worth.
The navel gazing has begun within the Democratic Party and all manner of excuses for the loss to Donald J. Trump are being fabricated. The election was lost because; 1) there is at the present time a global turn towards right-wing populist authoritarian leaders; 2) the Trump campaign exploited unfounded fears about a migrant invasion including the fact that some migrants were “eating the dogs”; 3) Trump’s constant refrain that the country’s economy is going to hell (despite statistical information to the contrary) played on people’s insecurities and desires for a better life; etc. etc. etc.
There is an element of truth to all of these statements/excuses. Elections and voters are complicated.
But really? How bad does your candidate and platform have to be to get beaten by Donald J. Trump – TWICE?
In my opinion the reason for both losses comes down to a single feeling, ambiguous and impossible to analyze with precision. That reason was reflected in an NBC News Poll released in September, 2024. In that poll 65% of respondents felt that the country was “on the wrong track”. That’s not good for an incumbent administration, right? But here’s the thing. That sentiment has been consistently above 60% since 2012.
This persistent and long-lived dissatisfaction with the status quo by a majority of the populace seems to be somewhat of a mystery to the movers and shakers in our political and economic systems (the “elite”). For most politicians with their rapidly attained excellent pensions, for established professionals making the best living for that class in generations, for wall street brokers and for anyone that acquired real estate in one of North America’s “hot” housing markets life looks pretty good. I would estimate (without any backup data) that amounts to about 35% of the population.
So, what about the 65%? Do they have legitimate grievances or is this just a case of inflaming fears based upon completely fabricated “boogie men”. Unemployment is very low and all the major economic measures such as GDP and the Stock Market are doing great. What’s the beef?
Let’s start with rural and small town voters. And before we start thinking about issues keep in mind two things. 1) People hate change of any type. Continuity is a comfort food we all enjoy a great deal. 2) When people worry it is often not so much about the present but about the future.
What has been happening in rural America, the “Heart Land” as politicians still like to call it? Nothing good, as far as I am concerned.
Rural areas, many of which were settled during the lifespan of the oldest people living today, used to be all about “community”. Life was simple, work was hard, rules were clear and contact with people and institutions outside the immediate area was quite uncommon and quite unnecessary. Many people, maybe most people, spent 99% of their lives within a few miles of the home they grew up in, a home that was often passed down from generation to generation. The most important lodestars in that environment were the elementary school, the community hall, and local churches. The Boy Scouts sold Christmas Trees, the Girl Guides sold cookies. At Hallowe’en neighbourhood children were greeted at the door by their first names and given home-made sweet treats that nobody was afraid of eating. Everyone agreed that the Norman Rockwell paintings that adorned the cover of the Saturday Evening Post pretty much reflected life as it was being experienced.
There were immigrants but they were white. They might speak a funny sounding language but they would get over that and learn English as they “melted” into the American way of life. They were Christians and they attended local churches, helped prepare Sunday picnics and worked shoulder to shoulder when a Church or a community Hall needed repair. People bought hardware and groceries and gassed up their cars at businesses owned and run by neighbours.
Sounds pretty idyllic, doesn’t it? The truth is that “Mayberry” and all the characters in that fictional town weren’t immensely popular because they were unique and “interesting”. They were loved because so many Americans could relate to the lives being portrayed.
Was that reality, which so many of today’s “elite” view with so much distain, perfect for everyone? Absolutely not. There existed in those communities sexism, racism and intolerance of every imaginable kind. The “melting pot” was real. Fit in or face the consequences.
What has happened to those communities? Well, believe it or not they still exist and almost 50 million Americans still live in them. They have watched as industrial farming has slowly but surely displaced the family farm. They have watched big box stores in nearby cities wipe out most of the local businesses. The nuclear families that were so vital to the “Hearts” of these communities have disintegrated as low birth rates and greater mobility of young people has meant that leaving the hometown for greener pastures is now the rule rather than the exception. The result has been empty Churches often sold off to the highest bidder and abandoned store-fronts with windows cracked, held together by duct tape.
An influx of immigrants from far off lands that look and act very differently than the Europeans that dominated newcomers throughout the 20th Century has dramatically changed these communities. Somewhat ironically, it is the devote, family-centric and tradition-upholding character of these new immigrants that can leave the original inhabitants feeling isolated and excluded. Strangers in their own land.
The final straw has been the encroachment of suburbia into many of these communities. Row upon row of cookie-cutter houses thrown up hurriedly with no sense of identity or history, inhabited by people with no connection to the communities being paved over.
All things considered, can you blame these folks from wanting to slow things down, maybe even reverse direction on many fronts? A traditional conservative playbook has been a comfortable companion for these voters for a long time. But recently, the backlash has become more strident and somewhat dangerous.
To most of the people in these communities there are still two genders which are assigned at birth. Although their local churches may be shuttered almost 80% of rural and small-town residents have a religious affiliation, almost all Christian, and attend large regional churches. Pro-life beliefs in these communities are strong and there are under-currents of anti-immigrant feelings as well. Some of these feelings are based upon interactions with temporary farm workers, many of whom are undocumented, who have little or no connection with the community and take jobs that could otherwise be available to local residents. Never mind the fact that most Americans would refuse to do those jobs, and certainly not for the wages being paid.
A party that prides itself on “Woke” notions of inclusion and tolerance at the expense of community disruption is not going to do well in rural counties. It is unlikely that this fact, born out across the U.S. in election after election, can be reversed without a lot more attention being paid to managing the ongoing transition of these communities in a much more sensitive manner. Even then it will be an uphill climb.
Next up: industrial workers – the bedrock of the “Blue Wall”. Michael Moore explained the eroding support for the Democratic Party by the working class in these formerly “Blue” states perfectly going into the 2016 election. His analysis is as true today as it was then. The Democratic Party has abandoned the working class. Bernie Sanders echoed those comments immediately after the 2024 results were announced.
Now one might question these critiques after four years of the Biden Presidency. Joe Biden was steadfast in his support for unionized workers. Joe Biden drove investment in public infrastructure which will benefit all citizens. Joe Biden maintained some of the tariffs on Chinese goods that Trump had initiated.
But here is the problem. Workers, and former workers, that have and had middle class manufacturing jobs in the “Blue Wall” states know that there will be no return to prosperity in their region anytime soon. Any new manufacturing jobs will be created in “right to work” states in the Southern U.S. where business-friendly Republican Governments allow rules to be bent and workers’ rights to be compromised. In a painful irony the “Blue Wall” workers watch as wage gains obtained through collective bargaining are matched by non-unionized corporations, particularly automobile manufacturers. This reality is doubly frustrating because those non-unionized workers don’t ever suffer the income loss caused by strikes and they don’t pay Union dues.
Beyond the realization that new jobs will not emerge to replace those lost in the region an even more existential threat looms over the future of manufacturing jobs throughout the U.S. Increasing levels of automation and the disconcerting development of advanced A.I. and humanoid robots make it impossible for anyone in a manufacturing job to feel secure. The long-held certainty that sons could eventually replace their fathers in jobs that had provided financial security to families for decades has evaporated.
The recent wage gains by auto-workers and others represent a pyrrhic victory and most workers understand that fact. U.S. industry cannot compete with the rising economic powers in Asia. Not just in terms of labour wage rates but in terms of automation and technology generally. It is no wonder that a desperate effort to build a financial moat around U.S. manufacturing through the use of protectionist measures such those espoused by Trump has great appeal in the “Blue Wall” states and beyond.
Finally, it is time to consider voters that were neither living in rural areas or what was formerly the Industrial “Heart Land”. Millions of college-educated, urban, and young voters cast their ballots for Donald J. Trump, a man that has spent most of the last 10 years insulting and alienating almost every segment of polite society. The reasons are undoubtedly complex, but I will focus on one that I believe is of central importance. I will call it “Boomer Greed”. And by the way, I am personally part of the problem as much as any other boomer.
In the aftermath of WW2 North America, spared the devastation of that global conflict, experienced economic prosperity on a level never seen before. The rapid transition away from the rural, primarily agrarian society of the early part of the 20th Century accelerated. Even so, societal values, including the predominance of large families continued into the 50’s and 60’s resulting in the “baby boom”. Over time affluence became the primary goal of the rapidly expanding middle class and rampant consumerism was its calling card.
At the same time advances in birth control and the emerging feminist movement were allowing women to exert more control over family planning. As it turns out, most women were not that keen on going through 6,7, or 8 pregnancies. The emerging car-centric culture enabled a migration of many urban workers to the suburbs and an emphasis on vacation road trips made family sizes of more than 4-5 very inconvenient.
And so began the rapid decline in fertility rates throughout the so-called “developed” world. In the U.S. fertility rates have declined from 3.5 in the 1960’s to less than 2 today. We North Americans have not been replacing ourselves in terms of population growth for decades. We have chosen prosperity over progeny and we are now experiencing the consequences of that choice.
Every society needs young workers to fulfill entry level jobs, many of which require a significant amount of physical strength and mental energy. Faced with a growing shortage of such workers through natural population increase most developed countries have turned to the only viable alternative – immigration. The primary countries that have provided young people to fill those jobs are developing countries such as Mexico, India, and China.
Increasing numbers of immigrants have allowed the U.S. and other countries to continue to experience economic growth despite a naturally stagnant or declining population. Make no mistake about it. In Canada and the U.S. we need immigrants and lots of them. But there are some negative consequences of this reality.
The large influx of immigrants has put increasing pressure on social services and, most importantly, has led to a housing crisis in many major urban centers. This, in turn, led to rapidly rising prices, rampant speculation, foreign investment and corporate ownership of residential properties. After the housing meltdown of 2008 in the U.S. housing prices in many markets have exploded. What has been the result? Many in the Gen X and millennial cohorts no longer view home ownership as a possibility. That is a very fundamental and very negative change in what has been an expectation for most people in the post-war era. Get educated, find a good job, buy a house, start a family. That was the life progression most people have aspired to for decades. For many, that no longer seems realistic. Is it any wonder that this group has joined the ranks of those that think the U.S. is “on the wrong track”.
I attributed this development in modern society to “Boomer Greed” and I believe it to be true. Boomers have held political power for the last couple of decades and we allowed this to happen. Why? Because a majority of Boomers and almost all elected politicians owned real estate. The intoxicating prospect of having our net worth increase by a factor of 2, 3 or even 10 times made us ignore the downstream impact on our children. There were tools at our disposal to prevent this. We could have enacted limitations on capital gains exemptions, foreign ownership, and property speculation. We could have supported more public housing and designed creative ways to help new home buyers manage financing in a responsible yet accessible way. We did none of that.
Republicans can be forgiven for letting the “free market” destroy affordability. They believe the capitalist economy will respond appropriately to imbalances in supply and demand. It has not. Democrats do not have that excuse.
All of these societal changes are trending away from progressive policies and “woke” concepts of diversity, equity, and inclusion. While many of us believe that a more tolerant society is a better society that is not necessarily a majority opinion. It seems pretty clear that focusing on bettering the lives of those that have been disadvantaged for decades will not work if we are simultaneously ignoring the very real challenges a great many people are facing.
Given all this turmoil and uncertainty is it really that surprising to witness the rise of Donald J. Trump? He offers false promises and blames immigrants for all of the nation’s woes. However unlikely it is that any of his policies will bring about positive changes he is at least recognizing some of the issues that Democrats have ignored. He offers false hope. And it is undeniable that false hope is better than no hope.
Here is my recommendation to Democrats. Stop feeling superior to the folks that voted for Donald J. Trump. They are not idiots. They are not fascists. The vast majority of them are not sexist, racist or mean-spirited. Make an effort to understand why so many people in the richest country in the world are not feeling good about the present and are very nervous about the future. Meet them where they live. Listen to their concerns. Be as bold in proposing real action to address their issues as Trump is in his boastful and unrealistic promises. The status quo is not working today and certainly won’t serve any of us well in the future. Stop defending it.
@enrgy_manifesto
